USDA lowers.
WASHINGTON — The US Division of Agriculture in its Nov. 9 World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates report made quite a few adjustments from October to each final 12 months’s estimates and 2022-23 forecasts, leading to greater ending shares in 2021-22 however decrease shares within the present 12 months.
For the 12 months that ended Sept. 30, 2022, the USDA raised beet sugar manufacturing by 77,618 tons to five,155,000 tons and lowered cane sugar outturn by 58,824 tons (all in Louisiana) to three,979,000 tons for a web change of about 19,000 tons with whole sugar manufacturing of 9,135,000 tons.
Excessive-tier imports have been bumped up 2,000 tons to 390,000 tons, lifting whole provide to 14,485,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from October and up 413,000 tons from 2020-21.
“US sugar provide and use for 2021-22 is revised to include full fiscal 12 months estimates in USDA’s Sweetener Market Information (report),” the USDA mentioned. Beet sugar manufacturing was raised primarily based on greater manufacturing in September than anticipated, whereas Louisiana cane sugar outturn was lowered on lower-than-expected manufacturing in September.
Whole deliveries in 2021-22 have been estimated at 12,578,000 tons, down 79,000 tons from October primarily based on meals deliveries at 12,470,000 tons, down 81,845 tons, “different” at 107,000 tons, unchanged, and exports at 29,000 tons, down 6,000 tons. Whole use was estimated at 12,671,000 tons, down 21,000 tons from October however up 304,000 tons from 2020-21.
A lot of the lower in deliveries for meals use was “attributable to very low direct consumption imports in September,” the USDA mentioned.
Ending shares in 2021-22 have been estimated at 1,814,000 tons, up 40,823 tons from October, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 14.3%, up from 14%.
For the present 2022-23 advertising 12 months that started Oct. 1, the USDA forecast home beet sugar manufacturing at 4,994,000 tons, down 111,341 tons from October as “beet processors lowered their forecast of sugar beets obtainable for slicing as a consequence of greater anticipated beet pile shrink.”
Cane sugar output was forecast at 4,091,000 tons, up 43,000 tons with will increase in each Florida and Louisiana. Whole sugar manufacturing was forecast at 9,086,000 tons, down 68,0000 tons.
Whole imports have been forecast at 3,441,000 tons, down 168,986 tons from October, with tariff-rate quota imports at 1,691,000 tons, unchanged, imports from Mexico at 1,425,000 tons, down 194,000 tons “primarily based on decrease exportable provide,” and high-tier imports at 75,000 tons, up 25,000 tons.
Whole provide in 2022-23 was forecast at 14,341,000 tons, down 196,055 tons from October as “decrease whole manufacturing and imports solely mildly offset by greater starting shares,” the USDA mentioned.
Whole deliveries have been forecast at 12,605,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from October, with deliveries for meals at 12,500,000 tons, down 25,000 tons, “different” at 105,000 tons, unchanged, and exports at 35,000 tons, additionally unchanged. Whole sugar use was forecast at 12,640,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from October.
US sugar ending shares in 2022-23 have been projected at 1,701,000 tons, down 171,000 tons from October, with the ending stocks-to-use ratio at 13.5%, down from 14.8% in October.
The USDA estimated Mexico’s 2021-22 imports at 31,000 tonnes, precise weight, down 19,000 tonnes from October, with starting shares unchanged at 1,053,000 tonnes and manufacturing unchanged at 6,185,000 tonnes. Home use was estimated at 4,629,000 tonnes, up 82,000 tonnes from October, and exports at 1,676,000 tonnes, down 118,000 tonnes.
Ending shares have been estimated at 964,000 tonnes, up 17,000 tonnes from October.
For 2022-23 the USDA left forecast sugar manufacturing in Mexico unchanged at 5,900,000 tonnes. Imports have been forecast at 35,000 tonnes, down 15,000 tonnes. Home sugar use was forecast at 4,701,000 tonnes, up 154,000 tonnes, and exports at 1,219,000 tonnes, down 183,616 tonnes.
Ending shares have been forecast at 979,291 tonnes, up about 32,000 tonnes from October and up 15,000 tonnes from 2021-22.
“Exports beneath license to america are lowered 166,020 tonnes and different exports are lowered 17,596 tonnes to zero,” the USDA mentioned. MBN